Bonds and Beyond: Modern Approaches to Portfolio Diversification

Understanding the Impact of Bonds in Modern Portfolio Management

The dynamics of global bonds have shifted significantly, with negatively yielding bonds reducing from over $18 trillion in late 2020 to approximately $3 trillion today, influenced by rising inflation expectations. Bonds traditionally play a critical role in cushioning stock market declines, a function increasingly vital as yields diminish.

In times of stock market downturns, bonds offer liquidity for portfolio rebalancing or covering current expenses. While their returns have been lower compared to the past, they remain a key component in sustaining investment strategies.

Bonds serve two main purposes for investors: income generation and acting as a hedge against market corrections. Despite fluctuating interest rates, their hedging capability remains reliably constant.

With nominal interest rates on the rise, real yields, which account for inflation, continue to be negative, suggesting that future inflation-adjusted bond returns could be lower. Bond returns are primarily driven by initial yield and interest rate changes.

Presently, bonds offer slightly higher yields than during the pandemic lows, but they are still at historically low rates. With expectations of the Federal Reserve’s fund rate increasing to 5.75% by December 2023 and potentially peaking, the landscape for bond investors is evolving. Forecasts suggest short-term U.S. treasury yields might increase to between 5.5% and 5.75%, while long-term yields could reach around 5% by 2024.

For bond investors, this implies marginally negative real interest rates and total returns for short and medium-term bonds, with 30-year bonds expected to generate around 0.1% real returns by 2025. Compared to the historical average of 1.9%, future real returns on bonds are anticipated to be about 50% lower.

Despite this, bonds are still expected to yield positive returns, positioning them as a low-risk strategy for hedging portfolios during recessions.

In terms of stocks, the impact of 3% long-term interest rates is unlikely to be significantly detrimental. Stocks tend to rise in low-rate environments as long as 10-year yields remain below 3.6%. The rate at which bond yields change is a critical factor influencing stock market corrections.

The Significance of Bonds in Hedging Against Recessions

Hedging a portfolio involves diversification through assets that don’t move in tandem. Historical data shows that sovereign bonds, government-backed mortgage bonds, and cash (T-bills) are among the most effective hedging assets.

Since World War II, bonds have risen or remained stable 92% of the time when stocks have fallen. Bonds have historically been one of the most effective recession hedges, with a success rate of 100% and an average excess return of 4.1% across market cycles.

In contrast, more advanced strategies like buying puts or credit-default swaps, while effective in recessions, tend to yield negative returns over the entire economic cycle due to their costs.

Tailoring Bond Allocation to Individual Needs

Not every investor requires bonds in their portfolio, but they are a valuable tool for aligning risk profiles. A 100% stock portfolio typically experiences a 35% decline during bear markets, while a balanced 60/40 stock/bond portfolio averages a 20% decline with shorter cycle times.

Bonds appreciate during average bear markets, providing a cushion and reducing the need to sell stocks under stress. Determining the right asset allocation involves considering personal risk tolerance and long-term investment objectives.

Asset allocation tools, like the Portfolio Visualizer, offer insights into historical performance and can aid in finding an allocation that aligns with individual preferences and goals. For instance, a conservative 30/70 allocation historically minimizes corrections, while a 50/50 portfolio aligns closely with the average historical correction in the S&P 500 since 1950.

Investment strategies vary, with some favoring a blend of ETFs and blue-chip stocks, while others may opt for a different mix based on their risk appetite and long-term goals.

High-Yields suggest this is the time to buy bonds

1. Current Bond Market Situation: Bonds are experiencing a significant sell-off, reaching a level of 4 standard deviations. Historically, such extreme sell-offs have been seen as opportune moments to begin investing in bonds. My current investment in bonds is set at 20% of my portfolio. Considering future interest rate changes, it’s important to remember that these are forecasts, not certainties.
2. Investment Strategy Insight: Financial science can be likened to the quantum physics of finance, dealing mostly with probabilities rather than certainties. Utilizing bonds as a hedge against bear markets or recessions is considered a decision with high probability and low risk, based on this investment perspective. In the next recession, it’s anticipated that 10-year yields will decrease, potentially increasing the value of bonds, which can then be sold for profit or used to fund expenses.

Additional Considerations:

• Recent Trends and Predictions: The 10-year yield has recently reached 5%, with a consensus among leading economists suggesting an average yield of 2% to 3% for the remainder of 2020s, aligning with the average of the previous decade.
• Long-Term Outlook: As long as yields will move back below 3%, bonds are likely to be a secure investment. For instance, the EDV and ZROZ yields 4.7%, which, after accounting for the 3.6% long-term inflation forecast, results in a 1.1% real return if held indefinitely. This ETFs, with their low expense ratio, presents a more prudent hedging strategy than many hedge funds.

Performance During the Pandemic: Long bonds fulfilled their role effectively during the pandemic crash, with a significant rise during the 34% bear market, outperforming other asset classes like cash and short-term bonds. Bonds have historically been reliable, rising in value when stocks fall significantly.

Recession Planning: My personal capital allocation plan involves balancing investments between retirement accounts, regular savings, and funds allocated for market corrections. The plan adapts based on the perceived recession risk, as indicated by tools like the yield curve. In times of heightened recession risk, the strategy shifts towards investing more in bonds like ZROZ and EDV and maintaining a cash reserve.

Conclusion: In a financial landscape where predictions are not absolute, bonds serve as a strategic hedge against recessions. With careful planning and an understanding of market dynamics, bonds can be an effective component of a diversified investment portfolio.